@PhDThesis{Macedo:2013:MoDiEs,
author = "Macedo, Rodrigo de Campos",
title = "Modelagem din{\^a}mica espacial e valora{\c{c}}{\~a}o das
altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es de cobertura e uso da terra relacionadas
{\`a} expans{\~a}o canavieira",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2013",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2013-09-26",
keywords = "modelagem din{\^a}mica espacial, valora{\c{c}}{\~a}o,
mudan{\c{c}}as de cobertura e uso da terra, expans{\~a}o
canavieira, spatial dynamic modeling, environmental valuation,
land use and cover change, sugarcane expansion.",
abstract = "O problema exposto neste trabalho {\'e} relacionado {\`a}
proposi{\c{c}}{\~a}o de um modelo din{\^a}mico e espacial
acoplado {\`a} valora{\c{c}}{\~a}o das altera{\c{c}}{\~o}es
de cobertura e uso da terra. O objetivo {\'e} desenvolver os
modelos de altera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cobertura e uso da terra e de
valora{\c{c}}{\~a}o e acopl{\'a}-los, propiciando a
gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cen{\'a}rios futuros monetizados
relacionados {\`a} expans{\~a}o canavieira e seus impactos nos
servi{\c{c}}os ecossist{\^e}micos. A {\'a}rea de estudo {\'e}
o munic{\'{\i}}pio de Arealva, localizado na regi{\~a}o
centro-oeste do estado de S{\~a}o Paulo. A proposi{\c{c}}{\~a}o
dos cen{\'a}rios levou em considera{\c{c}}{\~a}o a
revegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o de APPs como estrat{\'e}gia de
minimiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o de impactos ambientais e
recupera{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos servi{\c{c}}os ambientais j{\'a}
comprometidos. Foram definidos tr{\^e}s conjuntos de
cen{\'a}rios: i) cen{\'a}rios estacion{\'a}rios, em que foram
mantidas as taxas de transi{\c{c}}{\~a}o e reproduzidas as
mudan{\c{c}}as detectadas (tend{\^e}ncia hist{\'o}rica); ii)
cen{\'a}rios n{\~a}o-estacion{\'a}rios de
readequa{\c{c}}{\~a}o das APPs hidrogr{\'a}ficas,
recuperando-se 70\% das APPs at{\'e} 2020 e; iii) cen{\'a}rios
n{\~a}o-estacion{\'a}rios de readequa{\c{c}}{\~a}o das APPs
hidrogr{\'a}ficas, recuperando-se 100\% at{\'e} 2020. Para a
gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos cen{\'a}rios estacion{\'a}rios e
n{\~a}o-estacion{\'a}rios, foi elaborado um modelo de
mudan{\c{c}}a de cobertura e uso da terra. Esse modelo considerou
as seguintes vari{\'a}veis: dist{\^a}ncia {\`a}s estradas, a
rios e {\`a}s usinas, declividade e tipo de solo. Na
parametriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o, calibra{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
valida{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo, simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es
pret{\'e}ritas para 2005 e 2010 foram realizadas. Essas
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es foram ajustadas at{\'e} se obter uma boa
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o de similaridade entre a simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o
e a base-refer{\^e}ncia. Foram testadas diversas
propor{\c{c}}{\~o}es entre expans{\~a}o e nuclea{\c{c}}{\~a}o
de classes. Para valorar e propor cen{\'a}rios futuros
monetizados, uma fun{\c{c}}{\~a}o dose-resposta foi calculada,
que, por sua vez, considerou o lucro operacional, os principais
impactos ambientais associados {\`a} cana-de-a{\c{c}}{\'u}car e
pastagem, e os principais servi{\c{c}}os ecossist{\^e}micos
associados {\`a} vegeta{\c{c}}{\~a}o nativa. Os servi{\c{c}}os
ecossist{\^e}micos e os impactos ambientais selecionados foram os
relacionados {\`a} conserva{\c{c}}{\~a}o de solo e de
{\'a}gua, visando minimizar os riscos de eros{\~a}o e
assoreamento. As mudan{\c{c}}as mais relevantes est{\~a}o
relacionadas {\`a} expans{\~a}o canavieira e
retra{\c{c}}{\~a}o de pastagens. A readequa{\c{c}}{\~a}o
ambiental reduziria o lucro operacional em cerca de 6\%
(R\\$460.000,00.ano-1), representando cerca de
R\\$165,00.ha-1.ano-1 em APP. Todos os impactos ambientais
considerados s{\~a}o dependentes da estimativa de quantidade de
solo perdido, ou seja, quanto maior a eros{\~a}o potencial, maior
a pondera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de severidade do impacto ambiental. Os
cen{\'a}rios de readequa{\c{c}}{\~a}o ambiental podem reduzir
os impactos em at{\'e} 16\% (R\\$260.000,00.ano-1). Como
h{\'a} cerca de 4.600ha de APP em Arealva, essa
atenua{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos impactos ambientais poderia contribuir
com R\\$56,52.ha-1.ano-1, valor competitivo com algumas
pastagens degradadas. A readequa{\c{c}}{\~a}o ambiental traz
duplo benef{\'{\i}}cio: aumenta a oferta de servi{\c{c}}o
ecossist{\^e}mico e diminui os riscos de impactos ambientais
negativos. Ambos os benef{\'{\i}}cios s{\~a}o externos ao
mercado, portanto de dif{\'{\i}}cil percep{\c{c}}{\~a}o pelos
agentes. A viabiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o de um instrumento
econ{\^o}mico de valoriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos servi{\c{c}}os
ecossist{\^e}micos, atrelada {\`a} internaliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o
dos potenciais impactos ambientais, poderia viabilizar a
readequa{\c{c}}{\~a}o ambiental. ABSTRACT: The problem dealt
with in this work is the proposition of a spatial dynamic model
coupled to an economic valuation of land use and cover change
(LUCC). The aim is to generate future monetized LUCC scenarios
related to sugarcane expansion. The study area is Arealva, a
municipality located in the central-west of S{\~a}o Paulo estate,
southeast of Brazil. The proposed scenarios considered the
revegetation of conservation areas as a strategy for minimizing
environmental impacts as well as for recovering environmental
services under threat. Three sets of scenarios were defined: i)
stationary scenarios, where transition rates observed in the
analyzed period were maintained and the detected changes
reproduced historical trend (business as usual), ii)
non-stationary scenarios, with a 70\% recovery of vegetation in
conservation areas along water streams by 2020, and iii)
non-stationary scenarios, with a 100\% recovery of vegetation in
conservation areas along water streams by 2020. For the generation
of stationary and non-stationary scenarios, we designed a dynamic
spatially explicit LUCC model, comprising the following driving
variables: distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to
Tiet{\^e} waterway, slope and soil type. In order to
parameterize, calibrate and validate the model, past simulations
were accomplished for the period from 2005 to 2010. Such
simulations were adjusted so as to achieve a satisfactory fit in
relation to the reference map (real land use and cover map in
2010). The economic valuation considered operational profit and
the main environmental impacts associated with sugar cane and
pasture, besides key ecosystem services provided by native
vegetation. The selected ecosystem services are related to soil
and water conservation and are meant to minimize erosion and
silting-up risks, which precisely regard the analyzed
environmental impacts. The most significant changes are related to
sugarcane expansion and decrease in pastures. The environmental
readjustment reduce operating profit by about 6\%
(R\\$460,000.00.year-1), representing approximately R\\$165.00
. 1.ano ha - 1. As the ecosystem service is dependent on classes
inter-related to native vegetation, the environmental recovery
scenarios presented higher values for such services than the
stationary scenarios, approx. 75\% (R\\$900.0000,00.year-1).
All environmental impacts are regarded as dependent on the
estimated amount of soil loss, i.e., the greater the potential
erosion, the greater the environmental impact magnitude. The
scenarios of environmental recovery can reduce environmental
impacts by as much as 16\% (R\\$260,000.00.year-1). This
mitigation of environmental impacts could contribute to R\\$
56.52.ha-1.year-1, competitive value with some degraded pastures.
The environmental recovery causes reduced opportunity cost
(sacrified income). On the other hand, its benefits are twofold:
it increases the supply of ecosystem services and reduces the risk
of future undesirable environmental impacts. Both benefits are
external to the market, therefore it is difficult for economic
agents to acknowledge them. The design of economic policies
targeted to valorize ecosystem services together with the
endorsement of legal tools for internalizing potential
environmental impacts would certainly enable feasible and
competitive environmental recovery.",
committee = "Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor (presidente) and Almeida,
Cl{\'a}udia Maria de (orientadora) and Santos, Jo{\~a}o Roberto
(orientador) and Alves, Di{\'o}genes Salas and Soares Filho,
Britaldo Silveira and Sousa Junior, Wilson Cabral",
englishtitle = "Spatial dynamic modeling and economic valuation of land use and
cover changes related to sugarcane expansion",
language = "pt",
pages = "266",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP7W/3EPSPRS",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP7W/3EPSPRS",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "13 maio 2024"
}